OPEC monthly report

A monthly report from OPEC has said that while there is growing evidence of an impending upturn for the global economy, any recovery is likely to be slow and patchy. Their figures remain unchanged from their previous report.

OPEC said that they expect world oil demand in 2009 to contract by 1.6 mb/d (million barrels per day) to 84.1 mb/d. In 2010, global demand is forecast to return to growth following two years of consecutive declines, increasing 0.5 mb/d to stand at 84.6 mb/d.

Given the significant improvement in US consumption, OECD oil demand in August is forecast to decline by only 0.9 mb/d, up from a minus 1.8 mb/d in the previous month, while non-OECD demand is forecast to inch up by 0.7 mb/d.

"In 2010, global demand is forecast to return to growth following two years of consecutive declines, increasing 0.5 million bpd to stand at 84.6 million bpd", the cartel said.

In 2010, OECD oil demand is forecast to see a smaller contraction of 0.3 mb/d as US consumption returns to positive.

Meanwhile, non-OPEC oil supply in 2009 is expected to average 50.8 mb/d, representing an increase of 340 tb/d (thousand barrels per day) over the previous year, indicating an upward revision of 70 tb/d from the last assessment.

In 2010, non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to reach 51.2 mb/d, representing growth of 420 tb/d over the previous year.

In August, OPEC production stood at 28.8 mb/d, an increase of around 0.1 mb/d over the previous month.

"The US is playing a significant role in world oil demand, showing a comeback and reducing the contraction from 0.7 million bpd in July to almost flat in August. This is due to improved economic activity, summer driving consumption and the low base in the same month of 2008," the report explained.

On top of this, oil demand was strong in developing countries such as China, India and the Middle East. Those same regions would remain the driving force behind world oil demand growth next year, OPEC continued in the report.

16/09/2009

 

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