A model solution

How companies are using 3D modelling to leave not stone unturned in the search for new oil reserves. Senior Modeller, Noel Lucas, of Dragon Oil, outlines the last cutting edge technology.

“Right now I think it's the golden age for this industry. The only challenge is investment”
-Noel Lucas

How did you come to be a Senior Modeller at Dragon Oil?
Noel Lucas. I’ve been with Dragon Oil for the past year. For two years I worked for Halliburton in Abu Dhabi and now I’m working on the same projects but as part of the asset team at Dragon Oil that carries out outsourced projects. We are representing Halliburton and are involved in generally assessing their resources and helping them with enhancing oil recovery.

What are the latest trends now in terms of 3D modelling technology?
NL. Because the technology that we has five years ago is basically still the same, nothing has changed that drastically. The only thing we are trying to improve right now is get hold of all the aspects of a static model. So aside from piping, we also consider the pressure regime and the production weight on each of the floor units. This way the uncertainties which affect the volumetrics and the performance of each of the flow units later on are being captured. 

What technology are you using in order to achieve this?
NL. Right now we only have around two packages that we’re using in the industry for treating modelling. Petrel and Roxar. Petrel is owned by Schlumberger and was originally developed by a Norwegian company called Technoguide.  It was developed specifically for PCs and is Windows-based. Roxar is Linux or Unix based. If you use a Windows based software then you are limited to a very area and also the number of cells you can have in the static model is limited. You can only operate up to 10 million cells.  The performance is much better with Linux-based software because you can operate more than 10 million cells and so you can make your models last until 20-something.

If the technology has been the same for the past five years, what is the next step?
NL. The trend right now is to input seismic attributes to your models. That’s the dream of all the modellers around the world. At the moment you have an idea of the trend of your reservoir laterally because most of the studies using a static model is based on the wells.  But if you can incorporate and use seismic attributes then you can have a better view. The dream of every modeller is to try to relate each flow unit from the wells outside with the conditioning effects from the seismic attributes. That will improve production but also the volumetrics of the area. That is the future for 3D modelling.

How close is the industry to being able to achieve that?
NL. Well there are several companies right now who are developing everything in Windows specifically. This can be done more effectively and in a very short time. Then turnaround time is fast. But the really fun part is when you are trying to do a dynamic model from a static model. I have just attended a workshop in Abu Dhabi, which showed how we can stimulate up to more than a million cells now. Before that were were limited to only half a million. Intel is the company that is spearheading this new technology.  It means there is now a seamless approach to doing the simulation that means  a static model can be made using a million cells instead of being limited to very thick layers or maybe small cell sizes.

Oil companies are having to dig ever deeper to find new energy sources. How does 3D modelling enable them to achieve their aims?
NL. Today’s technology increases companies’ confidence when it comes to investing in deeper prospects. It’s much easier to make these decisions. The workflow is simpler and uncertain places are being studied all the time. This cuts down the risk of exploring in those areas. A lot of companies don’t want to invest in a high-risk area simply because they don’t know what’s there. There is also the risk of problems like stuck pipes or there not being any oil at the site. With the latest technology, such as modelling using magnetic resonance, we can explore deeper prospects where oil is deeply embedded.

Has the economic downturn affected investment in reservoir modelling technology?
NL. Right now I think it’s the golden age for this industry. The only challenge is investment. People are still scared of investing in this industry because it’s so high risk. And the cost of wells right now is horrendous. Shallow water drilling costs around US$20 million or more for a project. That includes the testing of the wells. Because there are not many prospects in the shallow drilling range however, most companies are venturing into deep waters, which people don’t go to much. This brings up the price to around US$60 million.  But right now companies are venturing into the areas that are high risk in deeper because we are running out of resources. The good ones have been taken.

In terms of manpower, are there enough skilled modelling geologists working in the energy industry?
NL. There are lots of people today who are going down this career path. And hopefully there are lots of universities that are encouraging people to go into this technology. But it boils down to the price of oil right now. Recently oil and gas has been all over the news and its controlling the economy right now so maybe this will encourage this generation of students to go into it as a career.

About Dragon Oil
Dragon Oil plc is an independent oil development and production company, registered in Ireland and listed under a dual primary listing on the London and Irish Stock Exchanges. Approximately 52% of the Company’s equity is held by the Emirates National Oil Company (ENOC). It is headquartered in Dubai and its principal development and production activity is the development of its asset in the Cheleken Contract Area, offshore Turkmenistan by a Group subsidiary, Dragon Oil (Turkmenistan) Limited. A production sharing agreement was signed with a state agency of the Government of Turkmenistan in May 2000 which has a 25-year term which expires in May 2025 with an exclusive right on the part of Dragon Oil (Turkmenistan) Limited to negotiate an extension for a further period of not less than 10 years. Dragon Oil had proved and probable oil reserves at 30 June 2008 of 645 million barrels and 3.2 trillion cubic feet of gas resources.